In recent years, the Bay Area has faced persistently low housing inventory, with most activity concentrated in two main selling seasons: the spring, which delivers the highest volume of listings and sales in the longest consecutive stretch; and the fall, which is shorter, moves faster, and can become especially unpredictable during election years.
As real estate agents gear up for the fall, reports on the ground hint at the potential for a much busier late summer/fall season ahead, especially after a sluggish first half of Q2. Early spring was overshadowed by the April stock-market tumble and tariff-driven jitters, causing many buyers and sellers to pump the brakes. With the booming rental market, some sellers got nervous and decided to rent their homes. But those delays didn’t derail the cycle entirely, and the latest Compass market report released in June by Chief Market Analyst Patrick Carlisle showed signs that San Francisco in particular had an unexpected rebound and strong levels of activity on all fronts in May, including inventory levels and overbidding.
Dana Cohen, one of the rounders at Rivet Real Estate, observed, “I’m seeing an uptick in buyer activity — especially among those who have been waiting on the sidelines for the past year. My clients are navigating a familiar tension: the desire to wait for a ‘perfect fit’ versus the impulse to act quickly and secure a property before a possible wave of increased competition, especially with speculation around a more frenetic fall market.”
The rise in activity has been met with fresh optimism as new waves of buyers enter the scene. Hiring momentum in the tech and AI scene has sparked relocations from New York, Seattle, Washington DC, Austin, and Florida. Agents predict that competition may start heating up.
Cohen sees this slow tail-end of summer as a strategic sweet spot that’s drawing in sharp-eyed buyers. “I’m seeing a wave of highly opportunistic buyers and savvy clients who recognize that summer often brings slightly less competition, and they’re keen to capitalize on any softness in pricing or increased negotiation leverage. On the seller side, motivations are more diverse, but there’s a clear trend emerging: some homeowners are making strategic moves, such as transitioning from single-family homes into duplexes to tap into rental income potential.”
The Big Debate: Pre-Market Inventory
“Pocket listings” have long been interwoven into Bay Area real estate culture, offering sellers privacy, prestige, and control. But in 2020, the playing field began to shift with new policies that rocked the industry, most notably California’s Clear Cooperation. The policy now requires any publicly marketed property, including “Coming Soon” listings, to be entered into the MLS within one business day.
As Dana Cohen explained, “Clear Cooperation marked a big cultural shift for Bay Area real estate. Pocket listings had been the norm in places like Marin and San Francisco — quiet sales, exclusive networks, limited exposure. But this policy pushed us toward a more transparent, level playing field. It was an adjustment, but it’s created broader access to homes and more competition.”
Fast forward to today, and the latest controversy around pre-market/off-market inventory unfolds as brokerages and Zillow are locked in a high-stakes duel over who controls the gateway to inventory, with Compass leading the charge for brokerages.
The Clear Cooperation policy naturally restricted the number of true pocket listings, and Compass (where I am a realtor) has recently stepped up strategic efforts to advance its network of exclusive inventory, leveraging its significant market share (estimated at 33% in San Francisco, 17% across the Bay Area — according to Compass data). The brokerage has recently rolled out the option for a three-phase approach for its clients: first, “Private Exclusive;” followed by “Coming Soon;” then “MLS,” granting early access to its agents and their clients to this inventory. In response, Zillow has hit back by banning any listing that doesn’t hit the MLS within 24 hours from its platform. These big moves have created speculation about which powerhouse will back down first, or if things will escalate further.
What’s the debate actually about? Access and control. Traditional wisdom holds that more eyes equal more competition on listings. Still, there are so many success stories that demonstrate how pre-market sales can exceed expectations for sellers, along with the added benefit of logistical ease and a huge reduction in selling costs — no need to move out, stage, and worry about public showings.
Another perk: sellers can test-drive pricing and assess demand without exposure to public price drops that tag future listings. As Cohen puts it: “Where exclusivity will truly drive price — off-market has its place. But for most, especially in competitive segments, MLS exposure is still the surest way to get top dollar. The strategy always comes back to what fits that homeowner’s goals and risk tolerance.”
One thing’s for sure: in this evolving marketplace, strategy and access are now the new real estate currency.
Jennifer Gottlieb-Shetrit is a realtor (CalDRE#: 02045019) at Compass serving the San Francisco Bay Area. She can be reached at [email protected] or www.JenniferShetrit.com.
